Two days ago, I--and a large chunk of the Twitterverse--tuned in to watch Germany pummel Brazil in the World Cup semi-final. Along with the shock, (sometimes tasteless) humor, and pictures of fake riots, Twitter buzzed with reports of records broken, game statistics, and data analysis and graphics. Some of the info was informative, but some was downright puzzling. The tweet I had the most trouble with was posted by ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo), which showed how seven World Cup goals would equate to scores in other sports.
It's pretty clear how they came by their numbers. Taking the average number of goals per team per game (1.3), Germany's seven goals are 538% of the mean. (By the way, the fact that the percentage is 538 is PURELY COINCIDENTAL. This has nothing to do with Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com, or @FiveThirtyEight. Really.) Throw that percentage at league averages and you get 14 goals (NHL), 22 runs (MLB), 107 points (NFL), and 484 points (NBA).
Now, I'll buy 22 runs in baseball--those kind of blowouts do happen--but the other numbers seem a bit high, especially the basketball score. In fact, it got me thinking: is it even possible for a team to score 484 points in an NBA game?
Let's try a simplistic-but-extreme scenario: Team A is the best that's ever existed; they shoot the ball as soon as they get possession, and they never miss. Knowing they're out-matched, Team B just tries to run down the clock and not foul anybody. In a 60-minute game with a 24-second shot clock, Team A makes 150 shots. That gives them anywhere from 300 points (all 2-pt FGs) to 450 points (all 3-pt FGs)--well short of the predicted 484 points.
Conversely, we can start from the assumption that Team A actually scores 484 points. This requires anywhere from 162 to 242 successful shots (discounting free throws), meaning Team A has to sink a field goal every 14.9-22.2 seconds. Not only would Team B have to make a lot of turnovers, but play would be extremely fast-paced. On average, an NBA team attempts just over 80 field goals per game. To double or triple that seems implausible. Even pitted against a team of middle-schoolers, it's doubtful the score could be run up that high.
In short, 484 points looks to be beyond the scope of basketball. If you want a sport with numbers like that, try cricket.
